In this final report for our Path to 2024 series, we examine how the election did or did not shift partisan attitudes.
The build-up to the 2024 presidential election was marked by a significant sense of concern and dread. As election day came to pass, however, and Donald Trump assumed the title of president-elect, the most acute concerns around post-election instability did not materialize.
Partisan Animosity
We find no difference in pre- and post-election levels of affective polarization. However, we do observe some difference in party-level differences. Democrats felt about 5% colder toward co-partisans after the election, whereas Republicans felt about 5% warmer toward out-partisans.
Democratic Norms and Political Violence
We find no evidence of any movement in support for anti-democratic norms or political violence.
Accuracy, Trust, and Resignation
Democrats responded to the 2024 election with reduced perceptions of accuracy, while Republicans increased their feelings of accuracy by almost 50 percentage points. While a net increase in election confidence is certainly a desirable outcome, it potentially signals that democratic commitments are largely conditional on in-party success. Democrats became slightly more resigned to democratic backsliding than Republicans became less resigned.
Methods
Since September 2022 and through the November 2024 election, we have conducted weekly surveys of roughly 1,000 YouGov panel respondents (eligible for re-contact after 3 weeks), constituting a total sample of over 124,000 responses from 75,000 distinct respondents. In the days immediately before and after the election, we fielded responses to an expanded set of survey items related to perceived accuracy of the election and resignation around the possibility of democratic backsliding. This election-focused survey yielded 990 pre-election and 1,000 post-election responses. Our main analysis uses time-series cross-sectional data in an interrupted time series (ITS) design, regressing our outcomes of interest on a binary post-election indicator.
As a robustness check, we also we also conduct an analysis of 403 panel respondents who completed interviews both before and after the election. Only the positive change in trust from the prior set of results survives the panel robustness check, although the in-party warmth for Republicans now also becomes significant. Overall, this suggests the election had fairly minor, if any, effects on the broader set of attitudes non-specific to the 2024 election.
About the Path to 2024 Report Series
PRL’s Path to 2024 report series is a new monthly chronicle covering partisan attitudes of Americans in the lead-up to the November 2024 presidential election. Each month, we focus on a different salient issue affecting voters and analyze public attitudes from our weekly public opinion poll. We will take on topics ranging from attitudes toward policy issues, such as immigration, to the health of our democracy. Backed by hard data, we hope to inform and dispel myths about what everyday Americans really believe. The reports are produced and written in clear language by PRL political scientists.
